The story isn't over yet. Last Monday, six Italian seismologists and a civil protection official were sentenced to six years in prison for manslaughter, for falsely reassuring the public that a major earthquake would not happen. But two recorded phone calls involving a more senior official suggest that the whole story has not been told about meetings held in the week prior to the earthquake and after the event.
Wiretap evidence suggests that Guido Bertolaso, then a chief of civil protection, ordered one of the defendants to issue a reassuring statement. A newly released audio recording also appears to show Bertolaso trying to conceal information in the aftermath of the quake.
Franco Coppi, who legally represents Giulio Selvaggi, one of the convicted seismologists, calls Bertolaso the "great absent member of the trial". "All these scientists were sent to L'Aquila with a precise task," he told New Scientist. "Given that they are considered responsible for insufficient communication, it would have been important as well to consider what mandate Bertolaso gave them."
The case relates to a magnitude-6.3 earthquake that struck the Italian town of L'Aquila on 6 April 2009, killing more than 300 people. A week before, the six seismologists met to discuss the risk of a quake, following months of small tremors. They concluded it was possible a major quake was on the way, but the evidence was inconclusive. Later, a civil protection official, Bernardo De Bernardinis, gave a statement saying there was little or no risk.
The trial was not about the seismologists' failure to predict the earthquake, as earthquake prediction is currently impossible. Rather it was about the failure to communicate the small but real risk of a major quake. Reassured by the statements, people stayed indoors instead of sleeping outside, putting them in more danger.
Caught on tape
Bertolaso, De Bernardinis's superior, had previously his phone tapped as part of an unrelated investigation by the Italian authorities. In January this year the Italian newspaper La Repubblica obtained a recording of a key conversation between Bertolaso and one of his officials (listen to it on YouTube).
In the recording, translated here, Bertolaso says: "I told him [De Bernardinis] to schedule a meeting in L'Aquila about this story of this swarm quake[?] to immediately silence any imbecile's allegations, concerns and so on." He continues: "That is a media operation, you understand? So they, [?] the leading experts of earthquakes, they will say: it is normal, these are phenomena that often occur, it is better to have one hundred shocks of the 4th grade on the Richter scale rather than silence, because one hundred shocks release energy and so there will never be a shock that really hurts."
Bertolaso now says he was repeating statements made about earthquakes in the past. "These types of statements have always been made in the 10 years that I have held this post. But obviously, I didn't make them, all those who participated in scientific seismic risk activities made them."
Seismologists contacted by New Scientist say the reasoning is incorrect. Small tremors on a fault do not necessarily mean a large one is coming, but neither do they necessarily make a future large earthquake less likely.
Later in the recording Bertolaso adds: "And also say that the meeting is organised not because we are scared and worried, but because we want to reassure the people. And instead of you and me talking to the population, we make the top scientists in the field of seismology talk."
Bartolaso denies telling the seismologists what to say. "The scientific committee is absolutely autonomous and independent," he told New Scientist.
After the tape emerged, Science reported that Bertolaso was also under investigation in relation to the l'Aquila earthquake. However, he was not added to the then ongoing trial, and has not been charged.
Political pressure
A new wiretap recording was published last week, again by La Repubblica. It features Bertolaso talking to Enzo Boschi, one of the convicted seismologists, on 9 April 2009 ? three days after the quake. In it he appears to order Boschi to conceal information.
Bertolaso says he has been asked about the risk of further shocks, and says: "This afternoon there will be a meeting of the Great Hazard Commission at the INGV [National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology]. So I said that the meeting is aimed at this. It is obvious that the truth about the situation cannot be told." Boschi told New Scientist that the meeting was to assess the likelihood that a nearby dam on Lake Campotosto could collapse. Models determined there was no risk of this and the expert group decided there was no need to raise the alarm. In the event, the dam held.
In the recording, Bertolaso later says: "At the end you'll file a press release with the usual stuff that you can say on the subject, on the potential of a new one [earthquake], and you won't mention the real reason for this meeting. All right?"
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